very, very close to tied and the state swing state polls, which have, except for north carolina and florida, basically have the two candidates either tied, but obama having a one, two or more point lead, as many as five in some state polls, lead over romney. why the discrepancy between the national survey and the state polls? >> the discrepancy is caused by the tremendous number of negative ads that the obama campaign ran against mitt romney over the course of the last six months. a rising tide lifts all boats, but it doesn't lift them quite as far in the battle ground states as it does elsewhere because of all the negative ads that the obama campaign has run. nevertheless, a lot of those states are incredibly close, there are eight states right now that are within less than 3 points. so, who knows which way those are going to go on tuesday. >> paul: there's another a factor here which is interesting in the polling, which is in these head to head surveys in the swing states, president obama typically can't get above 47, 48%, even if he's leading romney by a couple of points, he can't get ri